CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-01T23:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33659/-1
CME Note: Developing CME with bulk seen predominantly to the southeast in early frames with a very faint, oval-shaped/asymmetric halo shock portion, associated with an X7.1-class flare and associated eruption from AR3842 (S17E18). Coronal signatures include an EUV wave and large-scale dimming in SDO 171/193 with magnetic field line movement off the southern and southeast limbs and dimming of footpoints bridging the Active Region 3842 (S17E18) in GOES 284. [PRELIMINARY] closed out a non-arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-04T00:37Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 7.0 - 9.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/33682/1 Model Inputs: 2024-10-01T23:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=-12.0, Speed=963.0, HalfAngle=60.0, Time21.5=2024-10-02T02:29Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-10-04T00:37Z (+- 7 hours) Duration of disturbance (hr) =21.9 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.0 (kp)90=7 (kp)180=9 Other Location(s) Impact: Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-04T01:06Z Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-05T03:29Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-03T20:30Z Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-10-02T18:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241002_022900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 31.65 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-10-02T16:58Z
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